Vol. 2 No. 2 (2026): Derecho en Sociedad
ARTICLES

Structural Transformation and Systemic Risk in Strategic Emerging Economies (2010–2024): Multivector Evidence from the MIEA Model (Multivariable International Environment Analysis)

PDF (Español (España))
  • Brayan Acuña Obando
Brayan Acuña Obando
Universidad Nacional
DOI: https://doi.org/10.63058/des.v2i2.383

Published 2026-09-29

Keywords

  • Systemic risk,
  • emerging economies,
  • Geoeconomics,
  • Multivariable analysis,
  • International environment,
  • Structural transformation
    • ...More
    Less

How to Cite

Acuña Obando, B. (2026). Structural Transformation and Systemic Risk in Strategic Emerging Economies (2010–2024): Multivector Evidence from the MIEA Model (Multivariable International Environment Analysis). Derecho En Sociedad, 2(2), 41p – 75p. https://doi.org/10.63058/des.v2i2.383

Copyright (c) 2026 Derecho en Sociedad

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

Altmetrics

Abstract

Strategic emerging economies play a central role in the reconfiguration of the international system, combining productive transformation with new political, economic, and geostrategic vulnerabilities. However, conventional country risk frameworks remain fragmented, limiting systemic analysis of complex environments. This study introduces and applies the MAEI Model as a multivariable framework integrating political-institutional, economic, social, security, and geostrategic dimensions within a unified structure. Through a comparative assessment of emerging economies from 2010 to 2024, composite indicators are constructed to examine patterns of structural transformation and systemic risk. The findings show that economic growth does not necessarily reduce structural vulnerability and that interactions among variables intensify risk dynamics. Systemic risk classification was performed using percentile tertiles of the composite MAEI index. The study concludes that integrated multivariable approaches enhance risk anticipation and support more robust strategic decision-making in contemporary international analysis.

PDF (Español (España))

References

  1. Acemoglu, D., & Robinson, J. A. (2012). Why nations fail: The origins of power, prosperity, and poverty. Crown Business.
  2. Acharya, A. (2014). The end of American world order. Political Press.
  3. Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED). (2024). ACLED data export tool. https://acleddata.com/data-export-tool/
  4. Blackwill, R. D., & Harris, J. M. (2016). War by other means: Geoeconomics and statecraft. Harvard University Press.
  5. Bremmer, I. (2012). Every nation for itself: Winners and losers in a G-zero world. Portfolio.
  6. Energy Institute. (2023). Statistical review of world energy 2023. Energy Institute. https://www.energyinst.org/statistical-review
  7. Gereffi, G. (2018). Global value chains and development: Redefining the contours of 21st century capitalism. Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781108559423
  8. Gerring, J. (2012). Social science methodology: A unified framework (2nd ed.). Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781139022224
  9. Howell, L. D. (2011). Political risk assessment: Concept, method, and management. Wiley.
  10. International Monetary Fund. (2022). Global financial stability report: Shockwaves from the war in Ukraine test the financial system’s resilience. International Monetary Fund.
  11. Keohane, R. O., & Nye, J. S. (2012). Power and interdependence (4th ed.). Longman.
  12. National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START). (2023). Global terrorism database (GTD) [Data set]. University of Maryland. https://www.start.umd.edu/gtd
  13. North, D. C. (1990). Institutions, institutional change and economic performance. Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511808678
  14. Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development. (2008). Handbook on constructing composite indicators: Methodology and user guide. OECD Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1787/9789264043466-en
  15. Rodrik, D. (2011). The globalization paradox: Democracy and the future of the world economy. W. W. Norton & Company.
  16. Saltelli, A., et al. (2020). Composite indicators: Theoretical and practical foundations. Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-19223-1
  17. Strange, S. (1996). The retreat of the state: The diffusion of power in the world economy. Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511559143
  18. United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC). (2023). Global study on homicide 2023. United Nations. https://www.unodc.org/unodc/en/data-and-analysis/global-study-on-homicide.html
  19. Varian, H. R. (2019). Artificial intelligence, economics, and industrial organization. AEA Papers and Proceedings, 109, 399–404. https://doi.org/10.1257/pandp.20191064
  20. Waltz, K. N. (1979). Theory of international politics. Addison-Wesley.
  21. World Bank. (2020). Worldwide governance indicators. World Bank Group. https://info.worldbank.org/governance/wgi/
  22. World Bank. (2022). Global economic prospects. World Bank Group. https://doi.org/10.1596/978-1-4648-1866-4
  23. World Bank. (2023). Logistics performance index (LPI). World Bank Group. https://lpi.worldbank.org/